A new long-term forecast from the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) suggests Sri Lanka may face a significant gap in reaching its ambitious tourism revenue targets.

According to the forecast, international visitor spending in Sri Lanka is expected to reach US$6.46 billion by 2036, well below the Government’s target of US$10 billion in tourism revenue by 2030. Based on the projected growth rate, Sri Lanka could take until around 2045 to reach the US$10 billion level without a significant acceleration in tourism growth.

The report also highlights a key challenge for the industry: increasing tourist numbers alone may not be enough. WTTC projections point toward the need for Sri Lanka to attract higher-spending visitors and strengthen its high-value tourism offering. The Maldives, for example, is projected to generate higher international visitor spending despite having a smaller tourism market.

Sri Lanka’s broader tourism contribution to the economy remains strong. WTTC forecasts the sector’s total contribution to GDP to increase from US$9.92 billion in 2025 to US$16.62 billion by 2036, while tourism employment is projected to grow from 991,000 jobs to 1.52 million over the same period.

The findings underline the importance of better connectivity, hospitality skills, investment, sustainability and stronger public-private collaboration. For Sri Lankan tourism businesses, the opportunity is increasingly about creating experiences that encourage visitors to stay longer and spend more rather than simply increasing arrival numbers.